It's looking like we're jumping into summer by the output from our computer models later this week. Meteorologists tend to look at the 850 mb (5,000ft) mandatory level in order to see if warm or cold air advection will occur. Advection means the horizontal movement of air.

Take a look at the pictures. Notice how the temperatures at 850 mb continue to warm under a ridge by Tuesday and Wednesday. 850mb level temperatures don't show the diurnal temperature range that the surface exhibits, so it's easier to detect warm and cold air advection. The first picture shows 850 mb temperatures around 16 degrees Celsius. 24 hours later the second picture has 850 mb temperatures warm to 19 to 20 degree Celsius. This is a good example of warm air advection.

Take the 850 temperature and add 15 degrees in the summer to get the estimated surface temperature. That gives us 31 degrees Celsius for Tuesday afternoon. This equates out to 88 degrees Fahrenheit. Obviously we warm up even more for Wednesday.

850 mb can be a great level to locate trends in the forecast. Enjoy the heat!