The ridge of high pressure that's provided us the unseasonably warm temperatures is in the process of breaking down. A very strong upper level storm system is currently pounding the northern Rockies, and will continue to head east over the next 24 hours; moreover, you can tell that this system is deepening by the strong pressure gradient winds that have developed throughout the plains. This low will provide some relief from the heat as a cold front comes into play on Friday.

Severe weather could be a factor by late Thursday night into Friday morning as a cold front moves across Kansas and Oklahoma. The best shear and upper level dynamics look to remain north of our area; however, storms across our area may contain large hail and gusty winds, and will need to be watched closely.

Moisture continues to return to our area on strong southerly winds. LI values are forecast to range from -4 to -6 in response to dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Moisture should be deep enough to support severe storms. CAPE values around midnight on Thursday will approach 4,000 across eastern Oklahoma.

0-3KM shear is decent along the front around midnight. Shear values range from 250-350, which would indicate the possibility for rotating updrafts, so an isolated tornado threat can't be ruled out either.

Showers and storms will likely develop along the front late Thursday afternoon/evening across Kansas and Missouri, and eventually develop south around midnight across NE OK & NW AR. The low level jet should help to sustain these storms throughout the overnight period.