Saturday, May 05, 2007
WEATHER UPDATE SAT. EVENING
The Dynamics associated with an upper level storm system presently over the four corners region to our west have been explosive to say the least. Over the past three hours there have been 39 reports of tornadoes and for the day the count is now up to 79! Unfortunately, the latter number will be climbing.
A jetstreak is aligned north to south in western Kansas and there is a lot of divergence or a spreading out of air aloft, which infers low level convergence and rising motion at the surface. This coupled with extremely moist air (dewpoints over 70), steep lapse rates (cold air aloft) and a veering wind profile (turning of winds with height) has spawned numerous supercells. Action right now is being ramped up by a developing low level jet over central and western OK. Storm motion has been to the North Northeast at 30 mph. Activity will likely continue past midnight, slowly transitioning into a complex of thunderstorms and heavy rain. For the most part we will remain dry.
As the Low progresses further to the east, it will continue to become detached from the strongest jetstream flow. This leaves us with yet another cut-off low and a system that will enter what’s known as “spin-down” stage; one that still is able to produce strong to severe thunderstorms, though generally weakening. By tomorrow afternoon, we’ll likely see showers and t-storms develop, though we will not have the jet support over us. Therefore, the threat of severe weather remains low. We may a few strong storms with small hail and gusty winds, though the heaviest action once again, will remain off to our north and west. As the system moves eastward through mid-week, we will continue to have the threat of rain showers and afternoon t-storms.
A jetstreak is aligned north to south in western Kansas and there is a lot of divergence or a spreading out of air aloft, which infers low level convergence and rising motion at the surface. This coupled with extremely moist air (dewpoints over 70), steep lapse rates (cold air aloft) and a veering wind profile (turning of winds with height) has spawned numerous supercells. Action right now is being ramped up by a developing low level jet over central and western OK. Storm motion has been to the North Northeast at 30 mph. Activity will likely continue past midnight, slowly transitioning into a complex of thunderstorms and heavy rain. For the most part we will remain dry.
As the Low progresses further to the east, it will continue to become detached from the strongest jetstream flow. This leaves us with yet another cut-off low and a system that will enter what’s known as “spin-down” stage; one that still is able to produce strong to severe thunderstorms, though generally weakening. By tomorrow afternoon, we’ll likely see showers and t-storms develop, though we will not have the jet support over us. Therefore, the threat of severe weather remains low. We may a few strong storms with small hail and gusty winds, though the heaviest action once again, will remain off to our north and west. As the system moves eastward through mid-week, we will continue to have the threat of rain showers and afternoon t-storms.
Posted by Ted Zarras at 9:18 PM
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