We're watching eastern Oklahoma very closely this afternoon for the development of strong to severe storms. Moderate wind shear and moisture convergence is already in place, making severe thunderstorm potential a possibility. A partly cloudy sky has allowed temperatures to quickly climb into the 80s, and with dewpoint temperatures in the 60s, the atmosphere is going to be loaded. Let's go over the severe weather ingredients.....

1. Moisture: We have plenty of available moisture with dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.

2. Instability: The atmosphere will become increasingly unstable this afternoon due to the amount of surface heating.

3. Trigger: This remains to be seen at this point, and will remain a question mark all day. Due to the increased amount of warm air advection over the last several days, a strong cap remains present in the atmosphere. Most of the forecast upper level support will remain west of the area today, which will greatly limit the severe storm threat; however, if a shortwave, combined with strong surface heating can bust the cap, strong to severe storms will likely develop across the area toward the late afternoon and early evening.

We like to call this a loaded gun type of situation. Almost all of the conditions are present to meet severe weather, but a strong cap may keep the severe weather threat to our west.

We'll have more updates throughout the afternoon.